The Impeach-O-Meter is a wildly subjective and speculative daily estimate of the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves office before his term ends, whether by being impeached (and convicted) or by resigning under threat of same.
The Impeach-O-Meter got a little heady on Wednesday, raising the prospects of Trump leaving office early to a full 70 percent. This was entirely based on Steve Bannon’s personal opinion, rather than any particular set of facts. So let’s go back to the old approach of looking at actual data points and see where it gets us.
Current chief of staff John Kelly on Thursday spoke to the press and seemed to respond to that same Vanity Fair article which had described Bannon’s pessimism. In that article, Gabriel Sherman also wrote that two senior Republicans described Kelly as “miserable in his job and … remaining out of a sense of duty to keep Trump from making some sort of disastrous decision.”
Here’s what Kelly said on Thursday:
Although I read it all the time pretty consistently, I’m not quitting today. I don’t think I’m being fired today, and I’m not so frustrated in this job that I’m thinking of leaving. This is the hardest job I ever had. This is in my view the most important job I ever had. … Unless things change, I’m not quitting, I’m not getting fired and I don’t think I’ll fire anyone tomorrow.
That sounds like he’s…
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